Suchergebnisse

Although the link between oil prices and dollar exchange rates has been frequently analyzed, a clear distinction between prices and nominal exchange rate dynamics and a clarification of the issue of causality has not been provided. In addition, previous studies have mostly neglected nonlinearities which for example may stem from exogenous oil price shocks. Using monthly data for various oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, this study contributes to the clarification of those issues. We discriminate between long-run and time-varying short-run dynamics, using a Markov-switching vector error correction model. In terms of causality, the results differ between the economies under observation but suggest that the most important causality runs from exchange rates to oil prices, with a depreciation of the dollar triggering an increase in oil prices. On the other hand, changes in nominal oil prices are responsible for ambiguous real exchange rate effects mostly through the price differential and partly also through a direct influence on the nominal exchange rate. Overall, the fact that the adjustment pattern frequently differs between regimes underlines the fact that the relationships are subject to changes over time, suggesting that nonlinearities are an important issue when analyzing oil prices and exchange rates.

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for four major currencies based on survey data provided by FX4casts. We consider economic policy, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty as well as disagreement among CPI inflation forecasters to account for different dimensions of uncertainty. Based on a Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to the adjustment of exchange rate expectations. Our findings are robust to different forecasting horizons and point to an unpredictable link between exchange rates and fundamentals. Furthermore, we illustrate the importance of considering common unpredictable components for a large number of variables. We also focus on the post-crisis period and the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement among exchange rate forecasters and identify a strong relationship between them. ; Dieser Beitrag analysiert die Bedeutung von Unsicherheit für professionelle Wechselkurserwartungen und die resultierenden Prognosefehler für vier große Währungen auf Basis von Umfragedaten von FX4casts. Wir betrachten politische, makroökonomische und finanzielle Unsicherheit sowie die Inflationsunsicherheit als unterschiedliche Dimensionen von Unsicherheit. Basierend auf einem Bayesianischen VAR-Modell finden wir, dass eine Steigerung von Unsicherheit oftmals den Prognosefehler erhöht. Die Auswirkungen auf die Prognosefehler sind im Vergleich zu der Anpassung der Wechselkurserwartungen wesentlich bedeutsamer. Die Ergebnisse sind robust über unterschiedliche Prognosehorizonte und bestätigen einen nicht prognostizierbaren Zusammenhang zwischen Wechselkursen und Fundamentaldaten. Erwartungsunsicherheit ist zudem insbesondere nach der Finanzkrise stark mit den Unsicherheitsmaßen korreliert.

This study analyzes the dynamics between real effective exchange rates and current accounts from a novel perspective. We start by dissecting long-run and time-varying short-run dynamics as well as causalities between both variables. Following this, we extend our framework by including short-term interest rates. Finally, we examine common exchange rate and current account dynamics across countries based on common factors. Our results show that a real appreciation coincides with a worsening of the current account in most cases. The adjustment pattern is time-varying but suggests that the causality mainly runs from effective exchange rates to current accounts. However, an extension of our framework based on monthly data shows that trade balance adjustment is observed less frequently, suggesting that valuation effects play an important role for the relationship between current accounts and exchange rates. From a global point of view, cross-country trends which drive exchange rates and current accounts also share similar dynamics over the long-run, which is an important finding in the context of global imbalances. ; Diese Studie analysiert die Dynamik zwischen realen effektiven Wechselkursen und Leistungsbilanzen aus einem neuen Blickwinkel. Um Kausalitäten zwischen den beiden Variablen adäquat zu untersuchen, wird mit der Zerlegung der langfristigen und zeitlich variierenden kurzfristigen Dynamiken begonnen. Anschließend wird der Ansatz um kurzfristige Zinsen erweitert, um geldpolitische Schocks in die Analyse mit einzubeziehen. Abschließend werden Wechselkurs- und Leistungsbilanzdynamiken in Form von gemeinsamen Faktoren über Länder hinweg untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass in den meisten Fällen eine reale Aufwertung mit einer Verschlechterung der Leistungsbilanz einhergeht. Das Anpassungsmuster verändert sich jedoch über die Zeit und deutet darauf hin, dass die Kausalität in erster Linie von effektiven Wechselkursen in Richtung Leistungsbilanz läuft. Eine Erweiterung des Ansatzes basierend auf monatlichen Daten zeigt, dass eine Reaktion der Handelsbilanz auf Wechselkursänderungen weniger häufig zu beobachten ist. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass Bewertungseffekte für Interdependenzen zwischen Leistungsbilanzen und Wechselkursen eine wichtige Rolle spielen.

This paper tries to clarify the question of whether foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan are important for the dollar-yen exchange rate in the long run. Our strategy relies on a re-examination of the empirical performance of a monetary exchange rate model. This is basically not a new topic; however, we put our focus on two new questions. Firstly, does the consideration of periods of massive interventions in the foreign exchange market help to uncover a potential long-run relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals? Secondly, do Forex interventions support the adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium value? Our overall results suggest that taking periods of interventions into account within a monetary model does improve the goodness of fit of an identified longrun relationship to a significant degree. Furthermore, Forex interventions increase the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium in some periods, particularly in periods of coordinated forex interventions. Our results indicate that only coordinated interventions seem to stabilize the dollar-yen exchange rate in a long-run perspective. This is a novel contribution to the literature.